The betting-thread 2009

[Davetoast]

Sao Paulo won 2-1

Possibly I cursed it for you mate as I was wearing their kit playing footie last night

Eh? 2-1 is a WIN matey!

Even though I can see Davetoast's point I imagine the bookies will set the odds over a whole season to reflect the actual probabilities. Which is why John generally is looking for certain matches where he believes the odds are wrong. It would surprise me if you could use a simple system like that (betting against the Top 4 the whole time) and come out top.

That's the point though mate. I'm sure they do set the initial odds to reflect the actual probabilities but as the crowd bets, those odds are modified (Just like where John's odds last night started at 1.75 and ended up coming in to 1.6), wagers with a lot of money going on them coming in to make them less attractive and ones with little money going on them drifting out to make them more attractive, whilst also limiting the bookies' risk. Because, in the particular case of the EPL big 4, the crowd consistently overestimate the big 4 and underestimate lesser opposition, the odds on betting against the big 4 end up having general value over the course of a season, most especially with regards to the draw. On top of this there are a few simple rules which turn the season long odds in your favour even more, those being not betting when big 4 play big 4 and only betting on big 4 Vs Villa or Everton if the odds on Draw/Draw are 5-1 or better. An additional rule might even be written where you don't bet on big 4 matches with newly promoted teams. Having said that, with what Hull have done this season and the likes of Stoke's 2 draws with Liverpool, you'd have to think long and hard about that rule.

[Pee]

Oops. I misread the bet (dangerous thing that ) to be Sao Paulo to win by 3 or more goals and not 3 or more goal in the match

[Davetoast]

Oops. I misread the bet (dangerous thing that ) to be Sao Paulo to win by 3 or more goals and not 3 or more goal in the match

Hehe, def a dangerous thing that, although I expect you'd be a bit more careful if you were putting £2000 on it!

[Davetoast]

John, do you use or have you used the likes of these sites?

http://www.freebetting.net/betting_picks
http://www.footballbetting.net/
http://www.football-data.co.uk/
http://www.soccerbetting.info/
http://www.online-betting.me.uk/

If so, which sites do you use?

And what do you make of the likes of these?

http://www.soccerwealth.com/
http://www.crickettradingsystem.com/


Also, when you say stake: 4/10, does this mean 40% of whatever pot you are working with? So, for instance, If you were working with a weekly pot of £5000, you'd be looking to lay about £2000 on last night's match?

[Tripod]

That's the point though mate. I'm sure they do set the initial odds to reflect the actual probabilities but as the crowd bets, those odds are modified (Just like where John's odds last night started at 1.75 and ended up coming in to 1.6), wagers with a lot of money going on them coming in to make them less attractive and ones with little money going on them drifting out to make them more attractive, whilst also limiting the bookies' risk. Because, in the particular case of the EPL big 4, the crowd consistently overestimate the big 4 and underestimate lesser opposition, the odds on betting against the big 4 end up having general value over the course of a season, most especially with regards to the draw. On top of this there are a few simple rules which turn the season long odds in your favour even more, those being not betting when big 4 play big 4 and only betting on big 4 Vs Villa or Everton if the odds on Draw/Draw are 5-1 or better. An additional rule might even be written where you don't bet on big 4 matches with newly promoted teams. Having said that, with what Hull have done this season and the likes of Stoke's 2 draws with Liverpool, you'd have to think long and hard about that rule.

You are getting close to looking long and hard at each individual case. I was just saying it'd surprise me if such a simple system proved successful. And I imagine most of the bets placed are done by regulars so I'm not sure they will keep on overestimating the Big 4 and losing money on them.

When i read this i cant help to think that this could very well be a case of "failure in moneymanagement". Going from 15 euro to 500 is exceptional good. I know several that is good on finding decent bets, but after a period of fortune they tend to raise the stakes, often in a very aggressive way, this when they rather should have done the opposite.

Of course that is exactly what happened. Tobi had a losing streak and was down from 500 to 200 Euros and then he placed everything on an away win for Bremen in a cup match against 3rd division side St. Pauli. What he didn't know - and should have checked - is that it had snowed and the pitch was in a terrible condition, which of course evened things out a lot and St. Pauli won the game.

[hogstrom]

I shouldn't write this because obviously I'm biased and maybe I see things too bleakly but I fully expect Bayern to beat Hertha tomorrow. I just checked betfair.com and their quotes reflect my feelings, but maybe you could still place a bet. Though as I said, I might be looking at this too bleakly or expecting too much of Bayern. But in the three games so far since the winter break (cup and league) they looked very strong, tons of shots on goal and Toni/Klose is a pretty good duo, too. Hertha's strong point in the central defence, the duo Friedrich/Simunic is about as goo as it gets in the league, Simunic especially has been great over many years, not so good last season but he's back on form and was voted best centre back in the league in the first half of the season by the kicker magazine. However, apart from the fact that Klose and Toni could still prove too strong for them, I have no idea how Hertha will be able to stop Ze Roberto, Schweinsteiger and Lahm, let alone Ribery. Our full backs are terrible and our central/defensive midfielders are injured (Kacar, Lustenberger) or have picked up 5 yellow cards (Cicero) or have just returned from a long injury (Dardai). Our best striker (Pantelic) is still in pain and probably won't be playing, Raffael is totally out of form, only guy I can see scoring a goal is Voronin.

Top scorers (laugh if you must).
6 Pantelic (probably out)
5 Kacar (injured)
5 Cicero (yellow card ban)
4 Voronin (will play)

So scoring is not exactly Hertha's forte. Not conceding goals is our main strength, but if there is one team in the league which has the ability to create a lot of chances and score against us, it's definitely Bayern Munich. So I expect a heavy defeat. Of course, Hamburg won 1-0 vs Bayern a couple of weeks ago but they needed all the fortune in the world including two wrongly disallowed goals. Possibly I'm just highjacking your thread to talk about this upcoming game, sorry about that.

Short of time here, in short, I belive you have found a very good bet in the awaywin, Alex. Attackingwise it must have been considered as bad even without regulary scoring midfielder Cicero out? My knowledge is not even half as yours about the hometeam, but considering this situation at Herta, odds on Bayern will surely fall . Actually, three bookmakers have already lowered the odds for awaywin. If intending to go for this, wich i will, it´s better to act now.

No matter if Bayern will win tomorrow or not, im certaine odds close to evens on awaywin is worth a bet, so tnx for the tips Alex!

[hogstrom]

Top Moves

NAC Roda JC
Hertha Berlin Bayern Munchen
Sheffield U Hull City
Dundee Utd Inverness
Macclesfield Rochdale

http://www.tip-ex.com/

Well done Alex, you spottet the current, second most popular bet on european football, before odds started to drop on Bayern M. 6 more bookmakers have this night/morning lowered the odds on the awaywin.

[hogstrom]

John, do you use or have you used the likes of these sites?

http://www.freebetting.net/betting_picks
http://www.footballbetting.net/
http://www.football-data.co.uk/
http://www.soccerbetting.info/
http://www.online-betting.me.uk/

If so, which sites do you use?

And what do you make of the likes of these?

http://www.soccerwealth.com/
http://www.crickettradingsystem.com/


Also, when you say stake: 4/10, does this mean 40% of whatever pot you are working with? So, for instance, If you were working with a weekly pot of £5000, you'd be looking to lay about £2000 on last night's match?

Hmm, have not heard about any of these sites you mentions before. Im more or less only use soccerway.com and soccerbase.com. Maybe a bit oldfashioned...

About stakes, i guess i have been abit unclear about that, 4/10 is the same as 40% of max stake. 10/10 is as much as i dare to risk, only very few times during the season do i stake more than 10/10 (and never much more) wich is about 1% of my total account.

[hogstrom]

Odds on Bayern to win is in freefall now...

[hogstrom]

Bayern is now by far the most popular bet of the weekend. Every bookmaker, appart from a few statebookmakers, like the finnish Veikkasus, have lowered the awaywin. There is impossible to find higher than 1,85 for Bayern now. Indeed early news by you about this one, Alex.

[Pee]

Nice tip Alex

[hogstrom]

Nice tip Alex

It indeed was. Considering the situation in the hometeam (several very important players missing) I estaminated at least 55% chance for Bayern Munich to win the match. Thus, 1,90 on the awaywin was without a doubt of value. Alex gave great info here.

Even if a bet does not turn out as a winning one, it can still be a good bet, wich I consider was the case here.

[Tripod]

Nice tip Alex

It indeed was. Considering the situation in the hometeam (several very important players missing) I estaminated at least 55% chance for Bayern Munich to win the match. Thus, 1,90 on the awaywin was without a doubt of value. Alex gave great info here.

Even if a bet does not turn out as a winning one, it can still be a good bet, wich I consider was the case here.

Glad to hear it. I'm happy my team won, of course, and sorry the tip thus turned out wrong. Bayern could have easily won the match, our goalie was brilliant and two lucky punches - Voronins only two shots on goal - gave Hertha the victory. That's now eight home wins in a row, six of which we only won by a single goal, all of them could have gone both ways. But top of the table in the second half of a season for the first time ever - yeah!