The betting-thread 2009

[Pee]

VERY interesting thread

Like the look of that HT/FT analysis DT. Wouldn't mind seeing how Man U and Chelsea have fared in the same system. Taking those three teams into account you'd be staking £90 a week. Not sure my bank account could stomach many weeks without picking up a nice return. Obviously I could bet less

I reckon if you'd started this season doing the "top 4" including Arsenal, it would have proved a pretty exceptional season, especially considering Arsenal's dip in form.



Hogstrom, is it only footy you bet on? Have you previously bet on other sports and been stung, maybe due to lack of intimate knowledge of the sport?


I was following the fortune of a guy on a footbll forum who bet on Tennis, Golf, MLB, NBL and did very well over the year he was posting his reults. He's just started it up again though and is doing less well this time.


Anyway, keep posting your reults as I find it interesting

[Tripod]

Even though I can see Davetoast's point I imagine the bookies will set the odds over a whole season to reflect the actual probabilities. Which is why John generally is looking for certain matches where he believes the odds are wrong. It would surprise me if you could use a simple system like that (betting against the Top 4 the whole time) and come out top.

My best pal Tobi loves to bet on footie matches as well, with not so much success, I believe. He started off well enough years ago, turning 15 Euros into 500, but he lost all of it again. His idea usually was to do combination bets on favorites. Pick five games with "certain" home wins and you can double your money. I know at least for some time this proved successful when betting on tennis matches in the first few rounds of a tournament, the favorites always seem to win (and every final seems to be Federer vs Nadal). Still, I fear overall he hasn't managed to break even - to him it's an added excitement to watch a match he bet on, but that seems very dangerous to me. Nowadays he keeps it down to really small bets, the odd 2 Euros here and there.

[hogstrom]

Hogstrom, is it only footy you bet on? Have you previously bet on other sports and been stung, maybe due to lack of intimate knowledge of the sport?

- Very good guess. I have tried out icehockey and cant say that was much of a successs - even if i doubt i ended up worse than break even. But difficult to say that on the other hand, when i never did separate what was staked on icehockey and soccer back then. As you suggests, lack of interest is likely behind my failure regarding icehockey.

I was following the fortune of a guy on a footbll forum who bet on Tennis, Golf, MLB, NBL and did very well over the year he was posting his reults. He's just started it up again though and is doing less well this time.

That is the less amusing thing with posting bets officially, if you´re unlucky it can be seen as you lost your touch, when it is likely more about short term unluck. Especially when dealing with outsiders you´ll have to wait a very long time before finding out if the guy knows what he is doing or not.

My best pal Tobi loves to bet on footie matches as well, with not so much success, I believe. He started off well enough years ago, turning 15 Euros into 500, but he lost all of it again. His idea usually was to do combination bets on favorites. Pick five games with "certain" home wins and you can double your money. I know at least for some time this proved successful when betting on tennis matches in the first few rounds of a tournament, the favorites always seem to win (and every final seems to be Federer vs Nadal). Still, I fear overall he hasn't managed to break even - to him it's an added excitement to watch a match he bet on, but that seems very dangerous to me. Nowadays he keeps it down to really small bets, the odd 2 Euros here and there.

When i read this i cant help to think that this could very well be a case of "failure in moneymanagement". Going from 15 euro to 500 is exceptional good. I know several that is good on finding decent bets, but after a period of fortune they tend to raise the stakes, often in a very aggressive way, this when they rather should have done the opposite. My experiences is that a good period is often followed by a bad one, and opposite.

[Pee]

My best pal got himself into some serious finacial bother because of his gambling habit.

He too started off well enough, being successful backing Man United HT Man United FT and have Ruud van N to score anytime. Built up some half decent money but then started betting outside of his knowledge on stuff like NFL, Tennis etc. Started losing money and then started chasing that money.

I think the only way to be a success is to be be knowledgable about your market whilst remaining dispassionate about it. If that makes sense.


I read a bit about "Matched Betting" a bit ago but that just seems like a lot of hard work to me.

[Davetoast]

I would guess im around that later suggested level in stakes a year. I have never counted though.

OMFG, £300,000!

I think I'll bow out of the whole football gambling career then. The returns obviously aren't good enough unless you've got a huge level of investment, and I don't have upwards of a quarter of a million per year to risk losing!

Back to that piss boring stock market then I guess.

[Davetoast]

VERY interesting thread

Like the look of that HT/FT analysis DT. Wouldn't mind seeing how Man U and Chelsea have fared in the same system. Taking those three teams into account you'd be staking £90 a week. Not sure my bank account could stomach many weeks without picking up a nice return. Obviously I could bet less

I reckon if you'd started this season doing the "top 4" including Arsenal, it would have proved a pretty exceptional season, especially considering Arsenal's dip in form.

They seem to have picked up where they left off last season.

Looking at it this season, Manure would be the ones to leave out of the system. Hindsight is 20/20 though eh.

It would be good to get 5 years worth of results to analyse it properly really. I'm not sure this season is that exceptional with regard to draws but maybe it is.

Of course, if you were to pick one club, Liverpool would be the ones to plump for I guess but I just couldn't bring myself to bet against us in every match, dispassion notwithstanding.

[Pee]

dispassion notwithstanding

[hogstrom]

Sao Paulo - Ponto Preta OVER 2,5 in the match to 1,75 at Expekt/Unibet (5 hours left to kickoff)
Stake: 4/10

Sao Paulo had a great last season (winners) defensive-wise they were really good, never leaking more than maximum 1 goal in any match (not very common in brazilian football leaking few). The new season in Paulista have just begunn, and Sao Paulo have started rather goalrich. Latest matches: 2-1, 2-1, 0-2 could suggest defence is not in order. Ponte Preta score alot of goals lately, 8 from 3 matches. Internal is not that good if looking after many goals, but form on the teams is, as mentioned, good.

New striker, bought from Fluminese, Washington (4 goals so far) will start the match for Sao Paulo, while topscorer Neco will start for Ponte Preta.

Im somewhat surpriced to see 1,75 in odds for over 2,5 goals in the match. I would suggest at least 60/40 in favour of 3 goals or more in the match. Both Expekt and Unibet offer this price. Betfair started with 1,80 but is bit lower now.

[hogstrom]

OMFG, £300,000!

I think I'll bow out of the whole football gambling career then. The returns obviously aren't good enough unless you've got a huge level of investment, and I don't have upwards of a quarter of a million per year to risk losing!

Back to that piss boring stock market then I guess.

Well, these funds is only needed if you intend to blow every bet you place during a whole year. I cant enter enough zero´s for that to happen really.

[Davetoast]

Yeh, I've not really thought it through.

So you must be staking upwards of £5000 per week, expecting an average return of at least £5500 per week. Some weeks you can get as little as say £2000 back but others you might get £9000 back, for example. So the cashflow problem only comes on a long and bad losing run. £50000 would cover the highly unlikely event of 20 non-stop weeks of nightmare returns so the pot doesn't need to be anywhere near as big as I thought. Still, you need to have a large chunk of money available to be able to comfortably ride out a complete nightmare period without ending up on the street.

Am I getting closer?

[hogstrom]

Indeed you´re getting closer, Davetoast!

Btw, there is no bookmaker offering more than 1,65 on over 2,5 in the Sao Paulo match now. Expekt and Unibet is now down to 1,60 on that outcome.

[Tripod]

I shouldn't write this because obviously I'm biased and maybe I see things too bleakly but I fully expect Bayern to beat Hertha tomorrow. I just checked betfair.com and their quotes reflect my feelings, but maybe you could still place a bet. Though as I said, I might be looking at this too bleakly or expecting too much of Bayern. But in the three games so far since the winter break (cup and league) they looked very strong, tons of shots on goal and Toni/Klose is a pretty good duo, too. Hertha's strong point in the central defence, the duo Friedrich/Simunic is about as goo as it gets in the league, Simunic especially has been great over many years, not so good last season but he's back on form and was voted best centre back in the league in the first half of the season by the kicker magazine. However, apart from the fact that Klose and Toni could still prove too strong for them, I have no idea how Hertha will be able to stop Ze Roberto, Schweinsteiger and Lahm, let alone Ribery. Our full backs are terrible and our central/defensive midfielders are injured (Kacar, Lustenberger) or have picked up 5 yellow cards (Cicero) or have just returned from a long injury (Dardai). Our best striker (Pantelic) is still in pain and probably won't be playing, Raffael is totally out of form, only guy I can see scoring a goal is Voronin.

Top scorers (laugh if you must).
6 Pantelic (probably out)
5 Kacar (injured)
5 Cicero (yellow card ban)
4 Voronin (will play)

So scoring is not exactly Hertha's forte. Not conceding goals is our main strength, but if there is one team in the league which has the ability to create a lot of chances and score against us, it's definitely Bayern Munich. So I expect a heavy defeat. Of course, Hamburg won 1-0 vs Bayern a couple of weeks ago but they needed all the fortune in the world including two wrongly disallowed goals. Possibly I'm just highjacking your thread to talk about this upcoming game, sorry about that.

[Pee]

Sao Paulo won 2-1

Possibly I cursed it for you mate as I was wearing their kit playing footie last night


That Berlin-Munich game looks interesting Alex. Was surprised when I looked at the table for the first time this year to see Hertha top