The betting-thread 2009

[hogstrom]

Leeds - Lpool (L cup)

Lpool resting all important attacking players, to start with, several good on the bench that will likely come in if they´re trouble at halftime. Good chances for that i predict.

3/10 units on Leeds to lead at H/T to 5,50 at Bluesquare (Betfair with 5,90 = wich is 5,60 after 5% fee)

[hogstrom]

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Leeds - Lpool - Leeds to lead at HT....................................................0-0............Loss...........-3,0


Total amount staked: 162,00
Return: 185.13
Profit/Loss: +23,13 (+14,28%)

[hogstrom]

Man U - Sunderland

Anything else than hometeam to dominate in this match would be a surprice. Man U have been great cornerwise so far, at least if counting out the last fixture home vs Wolfsburg (4-5) unexpected that. Normally they win the "cornermatch" with 6-8 corners more than opposition.

Nordicbet offer 1,85 for Man U to beat 4,5 corners hcap. I would say that is likely a bit short hcap, i would have offered a 5,5 - 6,5 line for that match.

3/10 unit on Man Utd to beat hcap -4,5 corners.

[Steve1977]

I decided to have some flutters today...


Bolton v Tottenham
* Bolton to score first
* Bolton to win

Why? Given the bizzare news stories of Harry Redknapp being sacked or leaving along with Defoe no longer playing due to injury, it could be a weird weekend (Bolton did indeed score first)

Man Utd v Sunderland
* Over 4.5 goals

Why? Last Sunday, Bolton enjoyed a 5-2 win over Wolves and despite being so convincing, their defence looked awful.

EDIT:
Hull v Wigan
* Draw

Why? Cause I'm f*ckign stupid! Seemed like a good idea before 3pm

[hogstrom]

Not that bad bets?

1/2 correct in the Tottenham match (and odds would have been 2,70 or similiar) so ok there. Man Utd I would have agreed with you before it started, clear chance for a goalshow. Very close winning on that bet, resultwise. Close to 5,00 for 5 or some could easily have contained value.

Never checked stats on Hull vs Wigan, I presume it was very tight concerning odds. You fancied draw because even match?

[hogstrom]

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Man Utd - Sunderland, Man Utd to beat hcap -4,5 corners...........................14-1..........Win............+2,55


Total amount staked: 165,00
Return: 190.68
Profit/Loss: +25,68 (+15,56%)

[hogstrom]

Mjällby - Jönköping (Swedish superettan)

Mjällby is promoted, therefor failry high odds on homewin. Jönköping is a funny side, have been involved in several silly scores this season. Would guess that Mjällby would like to entertain in this fixture considering they already won the division, and if they go attack then Jönköping will surely join in. Feels like very good chances for many goals in this fixture.

6/10 Units on over 2,5/3 in the match to 1,88 at Ladbrokes (Bet365 with 1,875)





Over 2,5/3? 3 goals in the match = halfwin/half moneyback / 4 goals or more in the match = fully out winning bet.

[Steve1977]

Yeah, I thought Hull are struggling and so are Wigan. In the end it was nearly the result I predicted. Never mind

[hogstrom]

0-0, oh dear...

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Mjällby - Jönköping.........over 2,5.....................................................0-0.........Loss..............-6,0


Total amount staked: 171,00
Return: 190.68
Profit/Loss: +19,68 (+11,51%)

[hogstrom]

Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim

Two teams in good form take on eachother this afternoon. Bremen is full strenght, appart from Almeida missing. He is not that important (imo) though.

I cant forget this fixture from last year. At this time last year I was looking after prices for many goals, i still recall stumbling into Paddy Powers huge 501,00 for the result 5-4, but skipped it, this when i really could not recall ever seen that result before. What happened...? Result: 5-4. I´ll have a tiny wager at that just in case. Yes, same price this time (501,00)

Diego left before this season, hard to say if they miss him that much so far. Indeed Ozil stepped up his game during last season and could do similiar work. One year ago i could not dreamed i would write that, amazing how young players can develop quickly!

After Diego left, and with Almeida out, centraldefender, Naldo take all freekicks, close as well as far away from goal. He have a superb distance shot! He shoot extremely hard AND accurate. No wonder he have scored a couple already. Unibet offer huge 7,75(!) for him to score this afternoon, wich is way too much. A shame they wont accept more than 90 euro. Still a great bet that, imo, should not be priced over 5,00.

3/10 unit on Naldo to score at Uni...bet to 7,75

[hogstrom]

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Naldo to score for W Bremen.............................................................No.........Loss.............-3,0


Total amount staked: 174,00
Return: 190.68
Profit/Loss: +16,68 (+9,59%)

[hogstrom]

Nurnberg - Werder Bremen

Pizarro out for Bremen, also good cover up Moreno is out. Since long out of form, Rosenberg might make a rare start. W Bremen in good form but I struggle to understand why odds is dropping on the awaywin. Good chances for homewin or draw. Hometeam struggles though so my feeling about this say draw.

2/10 on results 2-2 and 3-3 at Betfair to 17 resp. 60 = 13,25

[hogstrom]

Hamburg - Borussia M'gladbach

Hamburg have started well, as expected big favourites to win this encounter. Guererro bad injury opened up for underrated swedish striker Berg. Im not surpriced he´s started scoring when given the chance. Good chance here.

4/10 on Berg to score at Uni bets 2,40