The betting-thread 2009

[hogstrom]

Steve, two longshots within one hour

[hogstrom]

C Palace - Newcastle

Two teams in good form. Palace should have been named as an undefeated side have not the referee missed that by now much discussed goal they scored away against Bristol City last week. I have to say it is amazing cameras is still not in use when it comes to football, but that is another discussion.

Palace played well and won fair and sq. away against Ipswich with 3-1. Newcastle have started even better, pointwise. But I do not agree having Newcastle as favorites here, as the bookmakers in general have made them. I see this as and totaly even match where any side can grab all 3 points.

I would like to have something that involves the draw, when i suspect that could be as much as above 30%, but the asian hcap +0,25 to 1,76 (Ladbrokes) is not that tempting after all, even if im quite sure it containes value. I have been searching for odds for the homewin, but not found anything i like.

I have a strong feeling this will end up in a scored draw and have decided to go for that (though, skipping shortpriced and much likely 1-1). Betfair have 19,00 for 2-2 and 101,00 for 3-3 wich is 16,00 (15/1) together. (Sportingbet with 17,00 + 101,00)

1 unit on 2-2 and 3-3 in the match, Crystal Palace and Newcastle to odds of 16,00

- more to follow

Attacking midfilder, Darren Ambrose have a good scoring record at all clubs he have played in, including Palace. He have started this season extremely well, scoring 4 already. When Palace is slight outsiders odds for him to score in also naturally quite high. But i had not expected to find 6,00 (5/1) for that to happen. However, im in doubt that odds will survive after my stakes so any possible followers might have to settle with Paddys 5,00 (4/1) wich also is ok. If no account there i found out they´re offering a decent bonus:
http://freebets.football-data.co.uk/paddypower.php

2 units in Darren Ambrose to score for Crystal Palace to 6,00 at William Hill

[Logos]

Hi John,

Please forgive my digression on this thread, but I have some questions regarding sports betting:

1) How many years have you been doing this?

2) Have you ever been banned/restricted by the bookies? If yes, how do you continue placing bets?

3) Is your average stake over 300 pounds per bet?

4) How many bets on average do you place per month?

Please do not feel obliged to answer these questions if they seem indiscreet to you.

[hogstrom]

Hi John,

Please forgive my digression on this thread, but I have some questions regarding sports betting:

1) How many years have you been doing this?

2) Have you ever been banned/restricted by the bookies? If yes, how do you continue placing bets?

3) Is your average stake over 300 pounds per bet?

4) How many bets on average do you place per month?

Please do not feel obliged to answer these questions if they seem indiscreet to you.

Hi Logos! No problem at all giving response to these questions of yours.

1: 8 years.
2: Oh, yes. Well, there are loads of safe bookmakers out there and I have to say there is only a few that will limit you, at least if you do not stretch them. And, you have the exchangemarket wich is great for people that tend to get banned at standard bookmakers.
3: Unsure...
4: Oh dear, no idea how many a month. This weekend (so far) I have bets on +25 matches.

[Logos]

Thanks John!

Great way to make a living!

[hogstrom]

- Np at all, Logos! Yes, making a living from a hobby of mine is something Im more than happy about.


Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Darren Ambrose to score.................................................................No...........Loss............-2,0
Palace - Newcastle 2-2 +3-3..............................................................0-2..........Loss............-1,0

Total amount staked: 145,50
Return: 177.13
Profit/Loss: +31,63 (+21,74%)

[hogstrom]

Chelsea - Burnley

Very impressive start by Burnley. 2/3 wins already! Somewhat ironic that they have defeated Man Utd and Everton, while they lost against Stoke. Im far away from sure about Burnley will avoid relegation, but im quite certain more big teams will slip up against this bananaskin-side. Looking at last season (cups) and so far this season, they (Burnley) seem to be the ultimate giantkillers. Tempting to back them getting something away against Chelsea.

2 Units on Burnley to score first against Chelsea to Nordicbets 7,00 (I doubt there is any value in the general 5,00 that is around)

[hogstrom]

Bolton - Lpool

Lpool have started badly. I suspect part of the reason is that they miss Alonso. Bolton have started badly as well. Ok, i fully agree about Lpool is favorites here, but the general 1,55 for away can´t be correct. I would have liked to see them at 1,80-2,00.

2 Units on Bolton to win to 5,00 (moneyback if draw) at Bet365
1 Unit on Bolton to lead at H/T to 7,00 at Betinternet

[hogstrom]

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Bolton - Lpool / Bolton to lead at HT....................................................1-1..........Loss............-1,0
Bolton - Lpool / Bolton to win (moneyback if draw)....................................2-3..........Loss............-2,0
Chelsea - Burnley / Burnley to score first goal in the match..........................No...........Loss............-2,0

Total amount staked: 150,50
Return: 177.13
Profit/Loss: +26,63 (+17,69%)

[Steve1977]

Do you tend to bet on International Fixtures John or do you generally stick to the domestic game?

[hogstrom]

Saw your question first now, Steve. Well, in general qualifyers is the same as no/very little work for me. I only had two bets during last week, i guess that confirm I tend to keep away from these international fixtures.

[hogstrom]

Liverpool - Debrecen

One could argue if Debrecen really deserved to make it past round 2. In that second round they defeated swedish Kalmar thanks to more goals scored away (2-0, 1-3) What i heard Kalmar played well away and should have got a better result than 0-2.

Yes, football it is about scoring goals, and not creating chances...but bets im going for tonight is not about scoring goals, so I suggest above is relevant.

Liverpool have won all their matches except one, cornerwise, most of them with clear numbers. At home they´re deadly. Added to this these teams Lpool have defeated in corners, is all likely stronger than Debrecen.

I predict heavy pressure by Lpool from the beginning, and thus corners (if not goals) to be the natural fruit from that.



4/10 unit on Liverpool to beat -5,5 hcap corners to odds of 2,00 at Nordicbet

4/10 unit on Liverpool to reach 9 corners or more to odds of 2,00 at Paddy Power

0,5/10 unit on Liverpool to reach exact 8 corners to odds of 7,50 at Paddy Power

[hogstrom]

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Liverpool to beat -5,5 hcap, corners...................................................10-6.........Loss............-4,0
Liverpool to reach 9 corners or more...................................................10...........Win............+4,0
Liverpool to reach exact 8 corners......................................................10...........Loss............-0,5


Total amount staked: 159,00
Return: 185.13
Profit/Loss: +26,13 (+16,43%)