The betting-thread 2009

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hogstrom
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:50 am

Tripod wrote:
hogstrom wrote: I take the risk Alex might laugh at me when I suggests Ozil have developed into a great attacking midfielder during the latest 12 months.


Not at all, Özil already showed a lot of promise while playing for Schalke and he had a good season next to Diego. The Brazilian cannot be replaced, but Bremen bought the also promising Marin, so they have two very young attacking midfielders backed by the more defensive oldies Frings and Borowski. Of course, Pizarro is also missed, I think they are still trying to get him back from Chelsea and if they don't manage they'll lok for another striker. Depends also on how Moreno turns out, a Bolivian who previously played for Donezk.

I feared you might bet on Bremen to win, which as always I would not recommend. But to bet on lots of goals when Bremen plays seems like a very good idea. Though maybe Schaaf will have to move away from his attacking style at some point, but it's been his gameplan for so many years now.

The central defending duo Naldo/Mertesacker is excellent. However, the backup Prödl who played on Saturday hasn't convinced me yet. And the wing backs are the great weakness - Fritz despite his caps for Germany is a terrible defender, though of some use when attacking. Pasanen and Boenisch are only marginally better and the Serbian talent Tosic apparently is even worse, considering he never plays.


- Way too late night when i have reached further than i thought i would in a tournament of poker. Plenty of time for other things while waiting for decent cards - like going thrue ko-gathering.

Interesting post, Alex. So we both agree about Ozils current status :) Fully agree about Prödl as well, I have seen him a few times acting as a central defender, and just like you, Im not impressed at all. I see him more like a fullback. But of cource not even close to as sharp as Fritz is on the right back.
- Seriously, when you´re mention Fritz as a rather bad defender, are you sure sure you´re not talking about Naldo? If you are, then i fully agree. Few central defenders (if anyone?) is so dangerous when going forward as Naldo. Very tall, and therefore effective in the air, and he is great at shooting from distance as well. But if looking at his defensive skills he is (imo) not even close to as good as his partner, Mertesacker. So he would indeed suit your description of Fritz ;)

Btw, i did read somewhere that Bremen have still not given up buying Pizarro from Chelsea. He would indeed be much needed. I watched the match vs Frankfurt last weekend, and I have to say that Bremen did not impress.

Btw, i saw that Herta bought Wichniarek (100% spelled wrong ;)) from Bielfield recently. He had an impressive score-rate for them last season, scoring like half of their goals. Not a bad replacement for that Liverpool striker i guess.
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Tripod
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Tripod » Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:01 am

I'm certainly not alone when criticising Fritz. He tends to make crucial errors, even though he generally isn't so bad. He's ok when attacking being a full back/wing back and he can tackle, too, but he can be overrun because his positioning (or reading of the opponent's play) is not good enough. Doesn't happen too often, but when it does, it's costly. Hertha used to have a guy pretty much like him, though generally a level lower: Sofian Chahed. (Not to be confused with Hanover's SofiEn Chahed, our guy doesn't have a club right now.) Not too shabby in attack for his position, but one or two times per game where he makes a blunder, allowing the winger to enter the box near the goalline, something like that.

Mertesacker at least for a while was as good as they get for a centre back, so sure, Naldo is worse. But from what I know he's still good, I'd be happy to see him in Hertha's dress. I reckon the reason he looks bad at times is Schaaf's system in general. Bayern used to have this problem, too. For example, when Helmer was still playing. When Bayern tried to play more attactively, more offensively, it put the backs under a lot of pressure, situations in which they could easily look bad. So I think that's the case with Naldo.

Spelling of Wichniarek ist 100% correct. The problem is: He already played for Hertha and only scored 4 goals in two and a half years. You see, he'd been scoring lots of goals for Bielefeld, then Hertha bought him (together with Bobic) and he was terrible. We allowed him to go back to Bielefeld before his contract was up - and suddenly he started scoring again. To everyone's surprise we now bought him again - ok, we have a new coach, a new system into which he should fit (Hertha plays a fairly fast counterattacking style)... but the fans were not happy to see him again and if he doesn't score soon, he'll have a tough time here. Favre apparently isn't so sure either and Hertha is still looking for another striker. They even enquired about Voronin again!
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:52 pm

Again, as replied to Steve earlier, I cant recall when i layed a bet last but i´ll do that now. I cant see why odds on Lpool to win away against Tottenham is dropping. Not unlikely odds colliding with asian market. Who knows...

Tottenham have done really well since Redknapp took over. Look at their performances at home! If im counting correct they´ve not lost at home during 2009 - including fixtures vs Man Utd and Chelsea. Maybe not 100% correct, still they´ve been very strong at home.

Decent internals vs Lpool:
4-2 (L.cup, Lpool not full strenght so maybe not counted)
2-1
0-2
0-1
0-0

First match, I have to say it feels much like a lottery, high drawrisk is my "feeling" about this encounter. I agree with finnish Veikkasus, 40% for awaywin, rest (60%) for home and draw.

Laying 5 units on Lpool to win to 2,10 at Betfair. (Thus 1,91 for homewin or draw)
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sun Aug 16, 2009 9:42 pm

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Tottenham - Liverpool....................................................................2-1.........Win............+4,75 (fee of 5% incl.)




Total amount staked: 134,50
Return: 151.63
Profit/Loss: +17,13 (+12,74%)
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Wed Aug 19, 2009 9:06 am

Burnley - Man Utd

I still remember Burnleys results in the L. cup vs Arsenal and Chelsea last season + the fact that they defeated Fulham as well in this competition. One could be tempted to argue that this cup is of less importance, and therefor these results is of less value. Still, Chelsea did field a rather strong side. Arsenal did not, but we all know their reserves have a tendency to do better than one do expect in this league-cup.

The season is very early, and we all know that this is the time of the year outsiders tend to cause upsets. Man Utd missing several important defenders, i do suggest Burnley can cause trouble here. I have no larger belife in them winning full time, but Burnley to score first is far away from unlikely.

2 units on Burnley to score first goal in the match to 5,00 at Bet24
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Wed Aug 19, 2009 7:13 pm

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Burnley - Man Utd..........................Burnley to take the lead?...................Yes.........Win.............+8,00




Total amount staked: 136,50
Return: 161.63
Profit/Loss: +25,13 (+18,41%)
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Steve1977 » Wed Aug 19, 2009 7:21 pm

hooray!!! I followed this advice John and won £6!!! :D It's not a lot but it is to me :)
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:04 pm

Good to hear you followed, Steve! The amount does not matter too much really, just the fact that going profit from a bet often generates a good feeling.

Btw, I did not belive they would be able to defeat Man Utd this evening. Another very good team is defeated by Burnley...
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:36 pm

Werder Bremen - FK Aktobe

Aktobe was recently involved in a 3-4 match vs Maccabi Haifa, now freescoring Bremen awaits them. The fact that Almeida and Sanogo is both missing does not matter. Now when they´ve bought Pizarro they should be more than ok. Pizarro and Hunt (midfielder/winger) should work fine.

Bremen is huge favorites (Betfair have awayteam to +30,00 to win) and even though odds is not attractive people are still betting on the homeside and over 2,5 in the match.

Sportingbet sticking out with 2,20 for +4 goals scored in the match. Im quite sure that is too much.

4/10 units on +4 goals scored in the match at Sportingbet to 2,20



Update with 1 hour left to kickoff.
Bremen to win and many goals to be scored is in freefall, concerning odds. I´ll add one bet on Ozil to score in the match where i do belive Unibet is sleeping.

2/10 units on Ozil to score in the match to 3,35 at Unibet
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:32 pm

30 minutes into the match at it is already 2-2! What a team this is to follow, one thing for sure, they´re (Bremen) is not a boring side :lol:
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:34 pm

33 minues...3-2 :lol:
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Thu Aug 20, 2009 8:49 pm

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
W Bremen - Aktobe..................+4 in the match...................................6-3.........Win.............+4,80
.........................................Ozil to score.......................................Yes.........Win............+4,70




Total amount staked: 142,50
Return: 177.13
Profit/Loss: +34,63 (+24,30%)
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Steve1977 » Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:07 pm

got anymore tips for the weekend John. I want to know where to place my two pounds :lol:
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