The betting-thread 2009

Talk about everything but Kick Off.

Moderator: Moderators

Steve1977
2000+ Poster!
2000+ Poster!
Posts: 2948
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:30 pm

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Steve1977 » Wed May 20, 2009 10:14 pm

I reckon it will go to Penalties.
___________________________________________________________________
World Cup 2010 - 8th Place
UK Champs 2011 - Runner Up
UK Champs 2010 - Winner
World Cup 2009 - 8th Place
World Cup 2008 - 19th Place
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sat Jun 06, 2009 5:48 pm

Sweden - Denmark

A classic. If im not wrong this is the 100 th game between our nations. Sweden slight favorite, if forced to guess a result i would go for 2-1 or possible 1-1. Would be great to see both of us going thrue. Many still remember the 2-2 draw with joy.

No point in betting on these two results (2-1, 1-1) when odds is against(too low) However, Ibrahimovich is in great form. Not unlikely scorer in this match in my opinion. I hesitated for a long time to back him to unibets 2.70. Now Bet24 offers great odds for him to score in the match (3,50) No doubt this containes good value. No way this should be over Unibets 2,70.

6/10 on Ibrahimovich to score to 3,50.
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Mon Jul 20, 2009 12:50 pm

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Gunnilse - Fessbergs Bet: draw and awaywin.........................................2-1...........loss............-3,0
Sweden - Denmark Bet: Ibrahimovich to score.........................................No............loss............-6,0



Total amount staked: 108,00
Return: 125.88
Profit/Loss: +17,88 (16,55%)
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Mon Jul 20, 2009 1:15 pm

Wolfsburg - Werder Bremen (Supercup)

Two attacking sides that recently have been involved in freescoring internal fixtures (last season 5-1, 2-5, 2-1) I would be surpriced if this would not end up in another over 2,5 match. I have no idea why Betfair offer high 1,70 for that outcome (Im all over it) Infact, more or less the whole market is fairly high on goals to be scored, i suggest that could be a proof of normal staff (oddscompilers) is on holiday currently.

Bet 1: +5 goals in the match * 5,00 (Sportingbet) 4 units
Bet 2: Correct score 2-2 and 3-3 average odds of 11,58 (Ladbrokes) 1 Unit
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Wed Jul 22, 2009 4:07 pm

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Wolfsburg - W Bremen....+5 goals in the match.......................................1-2..........loss.............-4,0
..............................2-2 and 3-3...................................................1-2...........loss............-1,0

Total amount staked: 113,00
Return: 125.88
Profit/Loss: +12,88 (11,40%)
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Wed Jul 22, 2009 4:42 pm

Flamengo - Gremio Barueri (Brazil, serie A)

Gremio Barueri is the most attacking team in the brazilian highest division so far. I would say they´re totaly freescoring currently when they consistently scores 2-4 goal/match. Nor do they have a better defence than Werder Bremen. Flamengos form is not bad eirther (2-2, 1-2, 2-2) suggest this will likely turn out as a goalrich affair. Good feeling on this as well, what that is worth...

3/10 +4 goals in the match to 2,70 at Sportingbet
3/10 +5 goals in the match to 5,20 at Sportingbet
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sat Aug 08, 2009 12:57 am

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Flamengo - Gremio Barueri.....+4 and +5 goals in the match........................1-1..........loss............-6,00




Total amount staked: 119,00
Return: 125.88
Profit/Loss: +6,88 (5,78%)

Close to all sq. :?o:
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sat Aug 08, 2009 1:25 am

W Bremen - Frankfurt (Germ. Bundesl.) Over 2,5 1,60 Expekt
Stake: 5/10

I struggled to see a prosperious future for Bremen when it was clear they would have to make it without Pizarro and Diego. But maybe there is a future without these two goalmachines? Sanogo have started well after returning from from Hoffenheim.
Maybe Mezut Ozil is the new "Diego" for W. Bremen? Well, I would not argue against that after watching him this summer in the U-21 finals. In differance from what i would have suggested 12 months ago, Ozil have potential to become even better than Diego. His passing and movement off the ball, is nothing but superb. I take the risk Alex might laugh at me when I suggests Ozil have developed into a great attacking midfielder during the latest 12 months.

Vasco Da Gama - Campinense (Brasil div 2) Over 2,5 1,60 Bwin
Stake: 5/10

Hometeam is made huge favorite (1,15-1,20) Both teams in great scoring form. Neither cant defend either. No recent internal meeting to rely on. Still, I would say there is very good chances for +3 in the match here.
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:35 am

Update
.............................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Vasco Da Gama - Campinense............................................................3-0..........Win............+3,00
Werder Bremen - Frankfurt...............................................................2-3..........Win............+3,00




Total amount staked: 129,00
Return: 141.88
Profit/Loss: +12,88 (+9,98%)
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...
Steve1977
2000+ Poster!
2000+ Poster!
Posts: 2948
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:30 pm

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Steve1977 » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:42 pm

you'r on a roll at the moment John! I do want to take your advice on whichever you'r going to bet on next but don't want to stop your flow.

This weekend I was going to bet on the following:

Sheff Utd to beat Middlesborough 1-0 (was 0-0)
Half time score at WBA v Newcastle to be 2-2 (was 1-0)
WBA game to have over 2.5 goals (was 1-1 FT score)


Put it this way, I'm glad I didn't bet on any of those.
___________________________________________________________________
World Cup 2010 - 8th Place
UK Champs 2011 - Runner Up
UK Champs 2010 - Winner
World Cup 2009 - 8th Place
World Cup 2008 - 19th Place
Steve1977
2000+ Poster!
2000+ Poster!
Posts: 2948
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2004 1:30 pm

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Steve1977 » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:44 pm

John, what is your opinion on lay betting though? In recent months there was an article on the local paper whereby a guy was close to bankruptcy but then decided to use his last £100's to lay bet and (his words) it made him the bookmaker essentially. Basically he layed against the favourites and as soon as others matched against him, he went off with their winnings.

Personally, I don't fully understand it to ever use it (when I lay against someone with my paltry £2, I stand to lose over £100 so not gonna risk it) but wondered what your thoughts on it were.
___________________________________________________________________
World Cup 2010 - 8th Place
UK Champs 2011 - Runner Up
UK Champs 2010 - Winner
World Cup 2009 - 8th Place
World Cup 2008 - 19th Place
User avatar
Tripod
2000+ Poster!
2000+ Poster!
Posts: 2735
Joined: Sun Apr 21, 2002 12:00 am
Location: Berlin, Germany
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Tripod » Mon Aug 10, 2009 9:37 am

hogstrom wrote: I take the risk Alex might laugh at me when I suggests Ozil have developed into a great attacking midfielder during the latest 12 months.


Not at all, Özil already showed a lot of promise while playing for Schalke and he had a good season next to Diego. The Brazilian cannot be replaced, but Bremen bought the also promising Marin, so they have two very young attacking midfielders backed by the more defensive oldies Frings and Borowski. Of course, Pizarro is also missed, I think they are still trying to get him back from Chelsea and if they don't manage they'll lok for another striker. Depends also on how Moreno turns out, a Bolivian who previously played for Donezk.

I feared you might bet on Bremen to win, which as always I would not recommend. But to bet on lots of goals when Bremen plays seems like a very good idea. Though maybe Schaaf will have to move away from his attacking style at some point, but it's been his gameplan for so many years now.

The central defending duo Naldo/Mertesacker is excellent. However, the backup Prödl who played on Saturday hasn't convinced me yet. And the wing backs are the great weakness - Fritz despite his caps for Germany is a terrible defender, though of some use when attacking. Pasanen and Boenisch are only marginally better and the Serbian talent Tosic apparently is even worse, considering he never plays.
WC Performances 2003: 28/31 - 2004: 14/43 - 2005: 17/63 - 2006: 31/50 - 2008: 12/41 - 2009: 14/34 - 2010: 24/46
User avatar
hogstrom
1000+ Poster!
1000+ Poster!
Posts: 1437
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2005 10:11 pm
Location: Osterund, Sweden
Contact:

Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:47 pm

Steve1977 wrote:John, what is your opinion on lay betting though? In recent months there was an article on the local paper whereby a guy was close to bankruptcy but then decided to use his last £100's to lay bet and (his words) it made him the bookmaker essentially. Basically he layed against the favourites and as soon as others matched against him, he went off with their winnings.

Personally, I don't fully understand it to ever use it (when I lay against someone with my paltry £2, I stand to lose over £100 so not gonna risk it) but wondered what your thoughts on it were.


Steve, my experiences is close to zero when it comes to laying a favorite. When/If im going against a big favorite, i normaly prefer to just go for the upset instead of backing both the upset and the draw outcome. However, im not surpriced if this strategy work for many. My opinion is that the value is, at least when it comes to footboll/soccer, most often in the upset.

In general, I guess that the people that do this just draw the conclusion that the bookmakers have made, say Man Utd, as too big favorites to win a match and therefore lay the odds of, say 1,25, wich would mean that the layer (in this case) get the odds of 5,00 (or 4/1) for any other outcome than Man Utd to win. Afterall, the favorites is by the bookmakers often made too big favorites, this because the bookmakers know beforehand that the money will still pour in on Man Utd to win, no matter of the odds on that outcome.
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
Wcups: 2005 (29:th), 2006 (15:th), 2007 (6:th), 2008 (6:th), --, 2010 (12:th), --, --, --, 2014 (5:th), 2015 (12:th)...

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests