The betting-thread 2009

[Davetoast]

Well identified matches, good strategies and nice profit.

But surely you have many more bets on and these are just a couple of them?

[hogstrom]

Good job John!

Tnx!

It was nervy to follow the end of the match, good pressure by Bremen in the later stages, they could easily have scored 2-2. Some luck with me in this one.

Swedish striker Rosenberg did start alongside Almeida, but was substituted in the 60:th minute. He did not look ok, i think Bremen played him ill.

Well identified matches, good strategies and nice profit.

But surely you have many more bets on and these are just a couple of them?

You asuming correct, Davetoast. I have loads of bets every weekend. But, Bielfield was surely the one with largest value this weekend.

[gdh82]

Total amount staked: 16
Return: 45
Profit/Loss: +29

Impressive start! I take it these units are in '000s

I know very little about betting and am cautious by nature but will nevertheless watch this thread with interest (like a few others here I'm sure). I notice that you placed multiple bets on the same match - is this about spreading the risk to cover several outcomes ?

Anyway, well done John - keep it up!

[hogstrom]

Total amount staked: 16
Return: 45
Profit/Loss: +29

Impressive start! I take it these units are in '000s

I know very little about betting and am cautious by nature but will nevertheless watch this thread with interest (like a few others here I'm sure). I notice that you placed multiple bets on the same match - is this about spreading the risk to cover several outcomes ?

Anyway, well done John - keep it up!

- Tnx, Garry!

I would suggest that "causious by nature" is not a bad thing, at least if we´re talking about betting. The opposite (risky behaviour) is nothing but dangerous.

Early on, say 9-10 years ago, i staked 1-5£/bet and counted everything I placed, so i certainly knew if i was winning or not (i didnt). By this move I soon knew what did cause long term losses. Believe it or not, but shortly after i started doing notes i came to the conclusion that big favorites did cost me dearly, while bets on outsiders gave slight profit. That did surprice me.

I guess making notes on bets with these sizes (1-5£) also make me to a causious kind of person...

- About your question: Normaly i do not place more than one, or perhaps two different bets on the same match. But with cases like the match between W. Bremen - Bielfield last weekend, many outcomes involving the awayteam to do well, were of very good value. More or less the whole market of bookmakers was out very wrong in this match, on many different outcomes.

If odds on awaywin to +8,00 was too high, then the odds on awayteam to lead at halftime (to similiar odds) was also incorrect. Instead of going with everything on awayteam to win after 90 minutes, I felt it was a good idea to spread the risks by placing several different bets on the same match.

- However, I should state that +200% return is silly and i have not target at all to get above +30% by the end of the year.

[hogstrom]

I have been placing bets on matches that one after one have been canceled because of the bad conditions in England. Seems to be a very calm weekend. One bet, as promised, though:

Anderlecht - Mons (Belgium) "hometeam to win without leaking a goal" Bet: NO. Odds 1,96 (Betsson.com)
Stake: 5/10

Two teams that knows how to find the net recently. Internal fixture usually includes plenty of goals.
3-2
4-1
2-1
4-1

Cant see this end up low scoring really. Low odds on over 2,5 etc, but decent price for awayteam to score at Betsson (1,96) including odd 0-0 draw.

[hogstrom]

Top-side Anderlecht was in deep trouble in this match, however they won thanks to a late 3-2 goal. Mons had no problem scoring though, thus winning bet.

....................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Anderlecht - Mons, "hometeam to win without leaking a goal" Bet: NO....3-2.........Win..............+4,8


Total amount staked: 21
Return: 54,8
Profit/Loss: +33,8

[hogstrom]

Portugesa - Paulista (Brazil, Paulista) OVER 2,5 goals in the match to 1,80 at Bet365 (starts in a couple of hours)
Stake: 4/10
Hometeam decent favorites (bookmakers have them from 1,60-1,70) Both teams have scored and leaked in every match so far. Internal have been fairly goalrich.
1-1
2-4
5-2
had expected over 2,5 to be around 1,60. No idea why it is possible to find +1,80 on a goalrich outcome in this match. Tried to match as much as possible at Betfair, but difficult when small match.

[hogstrom]

2-2 H/T. Winning bet...unless the floodgates craches or something...

[hogstrom]

....................................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Portugesa - Paulista (Brazil, Paulista) OVER 2,5 goals in the match........3-2..........Win............+3,2

Total amount staked: 25,00
Return: 62,00
Profit/Loss: +37,00

[Davetoast]

Wow, nice!

Do you call these yourself or do you get tips and info from elsewhere?

I saw you say that you look for an average return of 30%. Is that right? If it is, that would mean having to bet roughly £100,000 per year to make roughly £30,000 per year. Are these kind of figures anywhere near?

I'm not trying to pry for the sake of being nosey, I am genuinely interested in your system, if you have one, or just the way you go about things failing that.

I've recently become aware that the punters consistently overvalue the Premier League Big 4 and undervalue the lesser teams when they play each other, and the market reflects this. It's is most easily seen in the prices on the HT/FT market and the draw bets seem the best value in that market. So, for instance, you'll get between 8-1 and 10-1 on Draw/Draw when the big 4 play virtually any team except another big 4 team, Villa or Everton. The odds for Big 4/Draw in the same type of matches are more like 15-1 to 20-1 and the odds for Lesser Team/Draw can be bigger.

A system to exploit this would be to bet on all the draw perms - Draw/Draw, Big 4/Draw, Lesser Team/Draw - except when the Big 4 play each other (as there's no value in the market then) and only betting on Villa or Everton matches with the Big 4 if the odds are good enough. The idea of this being that even 0-0 draws give good enough returns to cover the stakes for all matches and you look to hit the longer odds on Big 4/Draw or even Lesser Team/Draw now and again, like the recent Wigan Liverpool match which was 1-0 to Wigan at half time and 1-1 at full time, returning 18-1.

You'll even get up to 100-1 on some Big 4 lose perms like Chelsea to be winning at half time and Stoke to be winning at full time but this is obviously a more risky strategy.

Out of 99 matches between them so far, the big 4 record this season is Won 58, Drawn 29, Lost 12. Obviously a few of those draws have come in clashes between the big 4 that you wouldn't be betting on. A few more have come in matches between the big 4 and Villa or Everton but, as these matches were offering 5-1 on the Draw/Draw, they're worth betting on so they count. So this season you'd be losing the draw bet roughly 75% of the time but making returns averaging about 8-1 in the other roughly 25% of matches, with the odd one coming in at more like 20-1.

I've not worked the exact numbers but, just looking at the percentages and odds, it looks like this system would have paid off rather well this season. What do you think?

[hogstrom]

Do you call these yourself or do you get tips and info from elsewhere?

Because of risk for bookmakers considering me apart of a "syndicate" if following popular bets, thus leading to (in general) horrible low limits, I nowadays ONLY placing my own bets, unless using exchange (like Betfair, Betdaq etc). Thus the bets i posts will always be my own findings.

* Mind you, even though im not apart of a syndicate, I lost more than 5 accounts in one single bookmaker last year.

I saw you say that you look for an average return of 30%. Is that right? If it is, that would mean having to bet roughly £100,000 per year to make roughly £30,000 per year. Are these kind of figures anywhere near?

Hmm, I would guess more realistic is +10% return. Slightly higher is not unlikely though, but I very much doubt i can reach any 30%.

I'm not trying to pry for the sake of being nosey, I am genuinely interested in your system, if you have one, or just the way you go about things failing that

News about suspensions, injurys etc helps alot. Statistics, as form on teams for instance, play a part as well. Otherwise I would like to point out that the general "feeling" I tend to have for a certain outcome in a match is something I classify as very important. However there is loads of ways to win (and lose ) money when dealing with betting.



I agree with you about that the topteams, not only in England is in general overrated. There is not often any point backing a huge favorite in soccer. But on the other hand, I sometimes get the feeling that in certain matches, the weaker side is doomed to lose the match.

Easy to say afterwards should be said first, but I felt that was the case when Barcelona played home against Sporting last weekend. Anything else than homewin was very, very unlikely and backing anything including draw or away, to the odds that were to find, was likely waste of money.

Interesting your thoughts about the big 4 vs the weaker teams in England could generate general value in the drawoutcome. Would you say this apply both home and away?

[Davetoast]

Yep, so for instance the Draw/Draw for Liverpool Vs Stoke earlier in the season was 10-1 and the same result in the recent return Stoke Vs Liverpool was 8-1.

Don't forget these are the half time/full time predictions i.e. result at half time AND result at full time.

Here's a run down of how it would have worked for Liverpool this season (half time scores in brackets):

Match - Sunderland v Liverpool - Result 0-1 LOSS

Match - Liverpool v Boro - Result 2-1 LOSS

Match - Villa v Liverpool - Result 0-0(0-0) WIN 5-1

Match - Liverpool v Stoke - Result 0-0(0-0) WIN 10-1

Match - Man City v Liverpool - Result 2-3 LOSS

Match - Liverpool v Wigan - Result 3-2 LOSS

Match - Liverpool v Pompey - Result 1-0 LOSS

Match - Spurs v Liverpool - Result 2-1 LOSS

Match - Liverpool v W.B.A. - Result 3-0 LOSS

Match - Bolton v Liverpool - Result 0-2 LOSS

Match - Liverpool v Fulham - Result 0-0(0-0) WIN 8-1

Match - Liverpool v West Ham - Result 0-0(0-0) WIN 9-1

Match - Blackburn v Liverpool - Result 1-3 LOSS

Match - Liverpool v Hull - Result 2-2(2-2) WIN 8-1

Match - Liverpool v Bolton - Result 3-0 LOSS

Match - Newcastle v Liverpool - Result 1-5 LOSS

Match - Stoke v Liverpool - Result 0-0(0-0) WIN 8-1

Match - Liverpool v Everton - Result 1-1(0-0) WIN 5-1

Match - Wigan v Liverpool - Result 1-1(1-0) WIN 18-1

Match - Portsmouth v Liverpool - Result 2-3 LOSS


So if staking £10 on each of the HT/FT draw outcomes, you'd be losing £30 every time they win or lose, meaning you'd have lost £30 x 12 =£360. But you'd have got £630 back on the draws, giving an over all gain of £190 taking the stake into account. Bear in mind though that all the draws came in at Draw/Draw prices, except for the Wigan match which was Lesser Team/Draw, returning 18-1! A few more of them or even the other way round and this would be paying off more handsomely. That's the whole idea of the system really, good value on the Draw/Draw to pay for stakes and keep the system running and then big pay offs for Lesser Team/Draw and Big 4/Draw outcomes.

Because of risk for bookmakers considering me apart of a "syndicate" if following popular bets, thus leading to (in general) horrible low limits, I nowadays ONLY placing my own bets, unless using exchange (like Betfair, Betdaq etc). Thus the bets i posts will always be my own findings.

* Mind you, even though im not apart of a syndicate, I lost more than 5 accounts in one single bookmaker last year.

Hmm, interesting, I didn't know they did that.

What I was really asking though, is how you pick your bets? Is it all your own work or are you part of a network of 'friends' or do you go on tipster/analysis websites, etc? Do you work to a loose 'system'? How much science do you put into it? Those sort of things.

Hmm, I would guess more realistic is +10% return. Slightly higher is not unlikely though, but I very much doubt i can reach any 30%.

Ok but I find it hard to understand how you make a better than average living at those levels. So to make the aforementioned £30,000 per year, you'd have to be betting £300,000 per year at this level. Surely you don't bet £300,000 per year!?!?!?

[hogstrom]

Ok but I find it hard to understand how you make a better than average living at those levels. So to make the aforementioned £30,000 per year, you'd have to be betting £300,000 per year at this level. Surely you don't bet £300,000 per year!?!?!?

I would guess im around that later suggested level in stakes a year. I have never counted though.

Hmm, interesting, I didn't know they did that

Oh yes, most of them do really. Some is really bad. I try to spread the stakes so there wont be a case of one big win at a certain bookmaker, rather many small winnings at different bookmakers, thus no big attention if winning.

What I was really asking though, is how you pick your bets? Is it all your own work or are you part of a network of 'friends' or do you go on tipster/analysis websites, etc? Do you work to a loose 'system'? How much science do you put into it? Those sort of things.

In general i deal with most of the larger soccer leagues in the world, mainly europe of cource. So going thrue info every week take some time. Not part of a network anylonger, no. I have tried that a few times and my experiences is that hurt my accounts in a bad way.