The betting-thread 2009

[hogstrom]

It was an impressive win, especially considering the situation. Hopefully they have more attacking options in the next match. Btw, did they (Herta) play 4-5-1?

[hogstrom]

Short of time, so not much info will be given for my bet of the weekend.

Macae Esporte - Friburguense (Brazil, Carioca division) +4 goals in the match to 2,80 Sportingbet.
Stake: 3/10
Two teams in good form, scoring alot. Last year fixture ended 3-1. Similiar result would not surprice me. Difficult to find odds, if Carioca was a bigger league then over 2,5 prices would likely have been decent, now 1,65 is highest for that outcome, not very tempting. Would guess value in 2,80 for over 3,5 in the match is better.

[hogstrom]

Hamburger SV - Arminia Bielefeld, Olic to score first goal in the match. 6,00 Centrebet or Gamebookers.
Stake: 3/10
Petric, striker in HSV is out (suspended) Guerrero will play alongside natural scorer, Olic. With Petric out, I have difficulties to see the ball enter the net many other ways than from Olic. Decent chance for him to score first imo.

[Tripod]

Sorry, Trochowski the scorer. I guess it wasn't a bad bet, not many goalgetters in Hamburg's team - I don't think much of Guerrero, either - and chances were good they'd score the first goal.

I can' tell half the time what system Hertha is playing. Voronin is what you can call the target striker, the guy who drops back, receives long balls and looks to pass them on. And still Raffael isn't the fast striker in a proper pair, he drops back so much himself, he's more a midfielder, sort of a free man in offense. Maybe a 4-4.5-1.5.

[hogstrom]

Sorry, Trochowski the scorer. I guess it wasn't a bad bet, not many goalgetters in Hamburg's team - I don't think much of Guerrero, either - and chances were good they'd score the first goal.

I can' tell half the time what system Hertha is playing. Voronin is what you can call the target striker, the guy who drops back, receives long balls and looks to pass them on. And still Raffael isn't the fast striker in a proper pair, he drops back so much himself, he's more a midfielder, sort of a free man in offense. Maybe a 4-4.5-1.5.

No, it felt like a decent bet.

I see, yes, i would like to recall kicker.de had him (Raffael) as a support-player.

[hogstrom]

.......................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Sao Paulo - Ponto Preta OVER 2,5 in the match.................2-1...........Win.............+3,0
Hamburger SV - Arminia Bielefeld, Olic to score first goal.....Other........Loss.............-3,0
Macae - Friburguense +4 goals in the match.....................4-0..........Win..............+5,4

Total amount staked: 35,00
Return: 77,40
Profit/Loss: +42,40

[hogstrom]

Stockport County - Cheltenham (England, div. 1) 4 goals or more in the match to 3,00 (Sportingbet)
Stake: 3/10
Again two teams in good form. Usually lots of goals when they play eachother. Hometeam is decent favorites. Things looks good in Stockport, no important players is missing. In Cheltenham very much in form striker, L. Owusu is doubtfull. If he is missing this bet is worsened, no doubt. There is different reports concerning wethear he will play or not, depending on where you look for information. (Hmm, wasnt Nick H. trainer for Cheltenham?)

Anyhow, Im quite sure there is value in 3,00 even if cant play tonight, but would have gone a bit higher in stakes if sure he would play.

[JamesHBeard]

Cheltenham are on a bad run of form all season and have lost their last 3 games ... 3-2, 5-3, 3-2

[hogstrom]

Cheltenham are on a bad run of form all season and have lost their last 3 games ... 3-2, 5-3, 3-2

Fully agree. Just a look at the table confirms Cheltenham had a bad season. However, lately they have started to fin the net, wich indeed is a good sign. Actually, if Owusu will start, should know before kick off, i considering backing them tonight. Quite high odds is available.

[Pee]

1-0 to Stockport. Unlucky as like you said, looked like a decent bet, at least in value terms.

[hogstrom]

Was surpriced about the low scores. Decent stats from the game though (even if not that reliable, plenty of shots on goal from both sides):
9 Shots On Target 8
12 Shots Off Target 8

[hogstrom]

.......................................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Stockport County - Cheltenham..4 goals or more................1-0..........Loss.............-3,0


Total amount staked: 38,00
Return: 77,40
Profit/Loss: +39,40

[hogstrom]

Shakhtar Donetsk - Tottenham Hotspur (Uefacup) Homewin 1,95
Stake: 7/10

This was lineup of Tottenham last match.
C. Cudicini

M. Dawson
B. Assou-Ekotto
J. Woodgate
V. Corluka

J. Jenas
A. Lennon
L. Modric
W. Palacios

R. Keane
R. Pavlyuchenko

Keane, Pavlyuchenko + Defoe is cuptied. Corluka cuptied as well. BBC suggests following did not travel with the team for the difficult awaymatch tonight: Carlo Cudicini, Jonathan Woodgate, Wilson Palacios, Aaron Lennon and Luka Modric.

So what is left? Reserves. One can always suggest that Tottenham reserves is still good players, but Shaktar is no poor team. Look what happaened when Barcelona did the same (lost 1-2 at home vs Shaktar) Shaktar have not played for a long time, so a questionmark about form. All in all, no wonder odds on hometeam to win is in freefall.