The betting-thread 2009

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hogstrom
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The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:15 pm

Ok, here we go. My first bet.

Arsenal - West Ham (awaywin) MONEY BACK if draw to 6,50 at Stan James (several others with odds just below this)
Stake: 4/10

West Ham is in terrific form, it seems to me like they have not lost much attacking strenght in the sale of Bellamy.
This row of results is quite impressive, especially considering they´re not Man Utd: 2-0, 2-0, 3-1, 2-2, 3-0, 2-1, 4-1, 0-1

Latest Internal results in this fixture is in West Hams favour:
Arsenal - West Ham 2-0
Arsenal - West Ham 0-1
Arsenal - West Ham 2-3

I would suggest +15% for West Ham to win this. Likely losing wager, but the value in 6,50 is not bad. I would have taken this down to 6,00 without hesitation.

- Remember this is not a bet on the straight win, it is a sidebet where "moneyback if draw" is implied.
Last edited by hogstrom on Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:18 pm

I can add that odds on the awaywin is dropping at several places. Betsson, Betway, Betandwin, Expekt and Bet365 have all lowered the odds on West Ham to win.
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Wonka » Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:22 pm

Being a West Ham fan I can say from experience that when we go on a good run (which is often) it is always followed up by a bad one. We're a good side though and we are playing well, but Arsenal should be a little too strong for us at The Emirates. However, it wouldn't surprie me if we beat them but i predict a narrow Arsenal win.

:(
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Fri Jan 30, 2009 1:54 pm

- Agreed, Wonka. Narrow win to Arsenal should be most logical outcome.

I´ll add one more bet to make this to a medium one, kind of dependent these two bets.

C. Cole to score for West Ham away vs Arsenal to odds of 5,00 at Paddy Power
Stake: 2/10

Great form on this forward and im certain West Ham will score.

6/10 in total.
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Fri Jan 30, 2009 4:23 pm

Werder Bremen - Arm. Bielfield

Odds on the awayteam to win away vs Bremen will certainly fall. Slightly said, it is a VERY weakened Werder Bremen team that will be fielded. For some reason market is still sleeping :?o:

Bremen won midweek cupmatch, fairly good team fielded then. Now following important players will be missing:
Diego (Playmaker and very important for W. Bremen. Ozil will try to replace him)
Pizarro
Naldo
Rosenberg

Not first team, but Hunt would have substituted Pizarro or Rosenberg, but he is out as well. Other coverup players in Baumann and Prödl is also out. To worsen things further, Bremen sold striker Sanogo during break. Thus only Almeida as attacking option. According to Kicker.de he will play as lone striker. Oh dear...

1: Werder Bremen - Bielfield. Awayteam to win against W. Bremen to odds of odds of 7,00 (moneyback if draw) at Bluesquare
Stake: 3/10

2: Werder Bremen - Bielfield. Awayteam to score first goal to odds of 4,33 at Bluesquare
Stake: 3/10

3: Werder Bremen - Bielfield. Half time/Full time: 2/2 to odds of 17,00 at Ladbrokes
Stake: 1/10

4: Werder Bremen - Bielfield. Awayteam to lead at halftime to odds of 7,50 at Centrebet
Stake: 1/10

5: Werder Bremen - Bielfield. Awayteam to score 2 or more in the match to odds of 4,00 at Sportingbet
Stake: 2/10

Total stake: 10/10

*** W. Bremen is likely still favorites, but in general awayteam should imo not be priced over 5,00 ***
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Wonka » Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:41 am

Actually, I think West Ham will beat Arsenal 1-0. Mark Noble to score.
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:18 am

I doubt West Ham will get a penalty away vs Arsenal, because that is needed for Noble to score, right?
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Tripod » Sat Jan 31, 2009 12:15 pm

Nice infos, John. An away win for Bielefeld would be a surprise result obviously, but I agree it'd be worth a bet if the odds are good enough especially with key players missing. With Bremen, though the bookies should know this, there are a couple of bets you could always try:

- Scoring lots of goals. Bremen is never content, they love the situation when they are up by two or three goals and will look to score more until the final whistle. It's the reason why when they win, they sometimes win big (4 games with 5 goals scored so far this season).

- Conceding goals. Due to the very offensive tactic they are always prone to concede a goal or two. Only three clean sheets so far this season (against very weak teams).

Generally therefore a very unpredictable team. Any team can beat Bremen if their goalie is on form and they make use of their counter attacks. If not, Bremen is likely to win by a big margin (as Hertha - once again! - found out, losing 1-5).

One thing about the Bundesliga: The long winter break. If you look at tables for the first and second half of the season you'll often spot teams which perform much better in one half than the other. Today's games are for most of the teams their first after the break which is nearly like the first game of a season in most other leagues. Some might not be on form yet (see Stuttgart vs Bayern in the cup a few days ago), some never find the form again (my Hertha is a candidate for sure).
WC Performances 2003: 28/31 - 2004: 14/43 - 2005: 17/63 - 2006: 31/50 - 2008: 12/41 - 2009: 14/34 - 2010: 24/46
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby uncle_colin » Sat Jan 31, 2009 1:18 pm

Great fourfold bet today:

Man.utd, West Brom, Leeds & Swansea, all to win. I got 20-1 on this. You heard it here first.
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Wonka » Sat Jan 31, 2009 3:53 pm

hogstrom wrote:I doubt West Ham will get a penalty away vs Arsenal, because that is needed for Noble to score, right?


Well, that's the most likely route to a Noble srtrike at the moment. However, he has scored quite a few goals for West Ham in open play in the past, and some of them have been real belters! It's half time at the moment and it's 0-0 so game on! COME...ON...YOU IRONS!!!
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:00 pm

Tripod wrote:Nice infos, John. An away win for Bielefeld would be a surprise result obviously, but I agree it'd be worth a bet if the odds are good enough especially with key players missing. With Bremen, though the bookies should know this, there are a couple of bets you could always try:

- Scoring lots of goals. Bremen is never content, they love the situation when they are up by two or three goals and will look to score more until the final whistle. It's the reason why when they win, they sometimes win big (4 games with 5 goals scored so far this season).


Fully agree with you, Alex. W Bremen is a special side, concerning their attacking approach. One thing is needed though: Diego must be on the field. Otherwise they rarely score more than 2 in one match.

Diego will leave before next season, i hope they´ll be able to find something similiar, otherwise they (Bremen) will be in trouble.
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby hogstrom » Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:23 pm

......................................................Result.....Win/Loss...../Profit/Loss
Arsenal - West Ham (awaywin) MONEY BACK if draw......0-0.....Moneyback....+/-0
Arsenal - West Ham C. Cole to score for West Ham.......0-0.....Lost............- 2,00
Werder Bremen - Bielfield Awayteam to win * 7,00.......1-2.....Win.............+18,00
Werder Bremen - Bielfield Awayteam to score first goal..0-1.....Win............+ 9,00
Werder Bremen - Bielfield Half time/Full time: 2/2........x/2....Lost............- 1,00
Werder Bremen - Bielfield Awayteam to lead at halftime..1-1.....Lost...........- 1,00
Werder Bremen - Bielfield Awayteam to score 2 or more....2......Win............+ 6,00

Total amount staked: 16
Return: 45
Profit/Loss: +29
By car, Kickoff2-record traveller! Ostersund/Dusseldorf +3,750 km during +55 hours
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Re: The betting-thread 2009

Postby Abyss » Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:32 pm

Good job John!

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